Anthropic's $16.8 Billion Quarter and the $1.5 Trillion Question

Jeff's Daily Pick. Anthropic just told investors it made $16.8 billion in one quarter. Some of them still want to pay $500 billion less for it.

In the United States, Anthropic held an investor day in San Francisco on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, ahead of an initial public offering expected in November. According to people who attended, cited by Reuters, the company said third quarter revenue rose 45% to $16.8 billion from $11.6 billion in the second quarter, and that it was profitable on an adjusted basis. A day later, Reuters reported that some current and prospective investors were discussing a valuation of about $1.5 trillion, down from the roughly $2 trillion that had been expected.

The numbers disclosed

First quarter revenue was $4.7 billion, so second quarter growth was about 147%. The third quarter's 45% is far larger in dollars and far smaller in percentage. Reuters also reported 2025 revenue of nearly $4.6 billion and a commitment to spend at least $518 billion over ten years on cloud services, computing and infrastructure. Dealroom, citing the Financial Times, reported an adjusted operating margin of 11% for the year through September, excluding items such as stock compensation, and an estimate that 5% to 7% of revenue comes from other companies distilling Anthropic's models, revenue the company expects to decline.

The calendar

Anthropic filed confidentially with the SEC on June 1. IFR reported that it plans to file publicly on October 26, start its roadshow on November 9 and price the following week, targeting up to $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation. Its private valuation was $965 billion in May. Anthropic has not confirmed the figures from the investor day.

The gap between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion is $500 billion, about what the private valuation was worth a year ago. The public filing scheduled for October 26 will show audited revenue, costs and the full spending commitments, and that is where the valuation debate gets real data. Our earlier piece on Anthropic's distillation defenses explains why that revenue line is shrinking.