Michigan's GOP Senate Nominee Now Wants Canada Tariffs Ended

Opinion. Every figure below is sourced in the box at the end; the conclusions are the author's.

In the United States, Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee for the Michigan Senate seat, released an ad on October 7, 2026, with a Canadian beer in his hand: “Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now.” CNBC notes that he spent months defending the tariffs and, in late August, called them “necessary.”

I like tariffs when they rebuild what we lost. I do not like them when they hit the supply chain of a factory that is still standing. Michigan is where that difference is measured.

What Michigan has at stake

CNBC reports that after negotiations collapsed, the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs in August on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, hitting steel, aluminum and manufacturing inputs, on top of existing duties on lumber and autos. Canada retaliated.

The state does about $80 billion a year in trade with Ontario, according to the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. Canada bought $23.2 billion of Michigan goods last year, about 39% of the state's exports, per the U.S. Trade Representative. The Detroit Three reported roughly $6.5 billion in combined tariff related costs in 2025, in CNBC's analysis of their filings. Whitmer's administration estimates tariffs cost the average Michigan household about $1,000 a year. That last figure is a state government estimate, not a federal one.

Think about what a Michigan plant manager sees. A transmission part can cross the border more than once before the vehicle is finished. Each crossing now carries a levy on inputs, and the retaliation hits the farm and tourism side of the same economy. A tariff designed to bring a factory home becomes a tax on the factory next door, and the plan to bring the supplier home has no date.

Politics follows prices

An early September poll by the Glengariff Group found 64.2% of likely Michigan voters opposed the Canada tariffs. The race is a toss up, per the Cook Political Report. CNBC's analysis of AdImpact data shows only 4.3% of Republican general election ads mention Trump, down from 47.1% in the primaries.

Voters are not confused about tariffs in the abstract. They are reacting to a car that costs more because a part crossed a bridge twice. For the cost of a related promise, see why the $5,000 tariff check does not add up.

None of this means the tariffs are working or failing on their own terms; the sources here measure exposure and opinion, not final outcomes. What they show is that the policy's costs are concentrated in a few states where the border is part of the production line, and those states vote.

Verdict

Reshoring is the right goal. It needs three things this fight lacks: a target that is strategic (steel for defense, chips, medicine), a calendar that lets a company plan, and allies who are inside the wall rather than outside it. Tariffs on a neighbor whose parts are already in our cars tax our own assembly lines first.

Protect what matters, and say what you are protecting. A candidate who changes his mind in six weeks has told you what the polls say about the policy. Has anyone told the plan?