Carney's Polls Are Soaring. Canada's Jobs Are Not.

Opinion. Every figure below is sourced in the box at the end; the conclusions are the author's.

In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney has the kind of numbers most leaders only dream about. EKOS puts his approval at two thirds of Canadians, 67%. Leger, polling October 9 to 12, has it at 58%. The Economist gave him its October 15 briefing under the headline “Donald Trump may save Canada.”

Fine. A poll measures a mood. Payrolls and budgets measure a policy. Look at those instead.

The jobs line

Statistics Canada published its Labour Force Survey on October 9. Employment fell by 68,000 in September, after a loss of 42,000 in August. That is 110,000 jobs gone in two months. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5%.

The young took the hit. Canadians aged 15 to 24 lost 48,000 jobs in September alone, and 67,000 over the two months. The participation rate fell to 64.8%, the lowest since December 1997 outside the pandemic. Statistics Canada blames mostly an aging population. Fair. It is still not good news.

Public sector employees fell by 70,000 in September, a fourth straight monthly decline. Over twelve months, total employment is still up 95,000. So this is not a collapse. It is a stall, arriving exactly when the applause peaks.

The deficit line

Ottawa's own Spring Economic Update, tabled April 28, projects a federal deficit of $65.3 billion for the current fiscal year, 1.9% of GDP. Five years out, the same table still shows $53.2 billion of red ink. No year of balance in sight.

The government says most of that gap is capital investment, about $55 billion this year, against an operating shortfall near $10 billion. Maybe. Every government calls its borrowing an investment. Taxpayers learn which it was when the interest bill arrives.

Verdict

Standing up to Washington is a real political asset, and Carney has earned the rally. I'm French. I've seen this movie: a leader admired for facing down a foreign power while the factories and the books tell a slower story at home.

Popularity buys time. It does not pay a salary. The next jobs report lands November 6. If the young keep losing work and the approval holds, which number will Ottawa quote?