Gallup: Democrats Lead, and Both Parties Are Underwater

Analysis. Every figure below is sourced in the box at the end. The facts are laid out; the conclusion is yours.

In the United States, Gallup's annual Governance poll, fielded September 1 to 17, 2026 with 1,000 adults and published October 13, found the Democratic Party ahead on several measures, 17 days before the November 3 midterms. The headline numbers are real. The same tables hold others that most coverage left lower down.

What moved

On which party would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous, Democrats lead 51% to 37%, a 14 point margin. In 2023, Republicans led by 14. That is a 28 point swing in three years.

On protecting the country from international terrorism and military threats, Democrats lead 46% to 42%. In 2023, Republicans led 57% to 35%, a 22 point margin. The swing is 26 points. Gallup notes this is only the third time since 2002 that Republicans have not led on the question.

What did not move

Favorability: 43% of adults view the Democratic Party favorably and 54% unfavorably. For the Republican Party it is 35% favorable and 63% unfavorable. Net of the two, Democrats stand at minus 11 and Republicans at minus 28. Gallup's own conclusion is that neither party enjoys a broadly positive image, and that a majority of Americans view the Democratic Party unfavorably.

Asked, without prompting, for the most important problem facing the country, 30% name the government or poor leadership, the top answer since late 2024. The high cost of living or inflation follows at 13%, and the economy in general at 11%.

The arguments

Democrats can say the poll shows voters trusting them over Republicans on the economy by the widest margin since 2007. Republicans can say a sample of 1,000 adults carries a margin of error of 4 points, was fielded before October, and measures trust in a party, not a vote. Both statements are accurate.

What to watch

Does trust in a party translate into votes when neither party is liked? Will the October 14 inflation reading, or the next CPI release on November 10, change which party voters trust on prosperity? And if 30% of adults name the government itself as the main problem, which party's candidates are they most likely to blame on November 3?